The recent announcement by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which maintained the status quo on interest rates, has influenced expectations in the Canadian real estate market, particularly regarding mortgage rates. BMO Capital Markets has shed light on this in a note to investors, explaining how the BoC’s messaging implies that rate cuts might not be imminent, potentially influencing progress made on fixed rates.
In the Canadian mortgage landscape, there are two main categories of interest costs: variable and fixed-rate interests. Variable rates are directly tied to the central bank’s key interest rate, while fixed rates are influenced by Government of Canada bond yields. The BoC’s recent announcement, while not directly altering the overnight rate, has significantly impacted market expectations for both types of mortgages.
Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO, emphasizes that the BoC’s language shift from hinting at potential rate hikes to discussing rate cuts was unexpected. The central bank’s view that inflation won’t return to the target until 2025 suggests a longer period of higher interest rates than previously anticipated.
This outlook has implications for fixed mortgage rates, which have been decreasing with bond yields since their peak in October. However, the recent bounce in yields could signal a halt to the decline in fixed mortgage rates, at least in the near term.
For Canadian homeowners and potential buyers, this means that immediate mortgage relief might not be on the cards, especially with the Spring market approaching. BMO suggests that while the narrative of cheaper mortgages could boost the Spring market, significant relief in fixed mortgage rates might take longer to materialize. They also hint that any potential cuts in variable rates are likely a story for the second half of the year.
While rate relief is still anticipated, it appears that the journey to lower mortgage rates may be longer and more complex than initially expected. This development is crucial for buyers, sellers, and investors in the Canadian real estate market, as it influences purchasing power and market dynamics.
